The Rearview Mirror

Donald Trump has finally allowed the transition to the Joe Biden presidency to begin; he has acknowledged that he will leave the White House after the Electoral College votes Biden President.  These are important political developments that appear to rule out the most feared, although remote, possibilities: full-blown rebellions in places around the country and/or the need to forcibly remove the President from the White House.  Yet the President still does not formally concede the election, still persists in his lawsuits, and still trashes any Republican who does not support his resistance.

The President still denounces a “rigged” election.  “This was a stolen election,” he recently tweeted.  Similar claims have run rampant on social media.  So, Trump has set his supporters up to reject even the formal election results for a long time after his departure from the White House.

What’s he doing?  Any reading of Trump’s speeches, tweets, and press conferences makes it clear he is preparing his base and the politicians they support to keep him installed as the leader of the Republican Party.  

Why should we care?  There are some chilling possibilities.

• Trump’s continuing challenge to the legitimacy of the election may cause American partisanship to increase even further in breadth and intensity.  The right-wing violence that has begun — along with the sometimes-violent left-wing response it inspires — may spread.
• In a nation where high percentages of people do not trust the government, Trump’s refusal to accept his defeat may shatter what little remains of that trust.  
• Depending on Trump’s response to the vaccine’s distribution campaign*, there could be wide-spread refusal to accept actual vaccination.
• Congress will most likely remain stymied as most attempts at action will be interpreted, by one side or the other, as partisan.  Cooperation with even moderate Biden proposals will be interpreted by the radical right as betrayal and will not be tolerated.  The fact that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has still not acknowledged Biden’s election gives us some idea of the possibility of future congressional cooperation and action.

There are some long-shot possibilities that might make positive action in the Senate possible.  In the unlikely event that the winners of the up-coming senatorial elections in Georgia are Democrats, that would flip the Senate to Democratic control.  It is also possible that several of the Republican senators who have sometimes shown independence from Trump — Mitt Romney from Utah, Ben Sasse from Nebraska, Susan Collins from Maine and Lisa Murkowski from Alaska — could join the Democrats on particular issues: immigration, prison reform and the DACA program (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), but past history does not bode well for any substantial cooperation.

Aside from the immediate impact, Could the long-term impact of Trump’s defiance threaten democracy?

• As above, partisanship and mistrust of government will most likely grow, at least in the short range. 
  
• A large portion of the vast swath of broken norms that the President will leave will be almost impossible to restore.
• Because the inability of Congress over the last four years to check presidential abuse of power, even the capacity of the Senate to fulfill its Article I responsibilities is in question.  Will the Senate have the power to limit the president when the next emergency arises?
• Perhaps the greatest danger is that Trump’s presidency will inspire and create models for future authoritarian presidents:
• Presidents may use the pardon to encourage cooperation by the high-level government staff.
• If the co-optation of the Justice Department were repeated, it could be used to extend the potential reach of the president’s threats and would almost certainly discourage future whistleblowers.
• Trump is unlikely to be legally prosecuted for even the most brazen abuses, reinforcing future autocrats’ assumptions that they are free to do almost anything without fear of retribution, especially since removal from office by Congress is so unlikely.  

Trump and Trumpism are not going away.  The myths of the stolen election and others “will probably persist for years or even decades,” says Kate Starbird, a University of Washington professor and online misinformation expert.

Whatever Donald Trump’s legal or political future, his impact upon American democracy will be profound.  The future looks better under Joe Biden, but we, or at least some of us, must also keep our eye firmly on the rear-view mirror.  Donald Trump and his progeny will be with us for a long time.
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*So far, the President has trumpeted and appropriately taken much credit for the astonishingly rapid development of several highly-efficient vaccines and will be sure to recommend their use.  But unless the world continues to publicly acknowledge his contributions, it seems likely he will find a way to disparage the further development, production and distribution of the vaccine and begin to speak against it.