Has Trump Destroyed the Republican Party?

The Republican Party is in an existential crisis: Former president Donald Trump is alienating the moderate and swing voters the party needs to remain viable, yet the party can't ditch him, either.

Trump is currently in significant legal jeopardy from several different directions, most recently because of concealing and refusing to turn over highly classified government documents that he had no right to keep, but also from the state of Georgia regarding his interference the 2020 election, from the state of New York regarding false tax filings, and from the congressional January 6 Commission regarding his instigation of the Insurrection at the US Capitol.

Trump is undoubtedly convinced he is most secure from legal jeopardy if he is the Republican candidate for president in 2024 and can falsely characterize all his legal troubles as “political witch hunts.”  He has strongly hinted he will run, and I expect him to formally announce his candidacy soon, probably before the November 8, 2022, election.

It's clear, however, that increasing numbers of Republican officials would like to dissociate themselves from Trump's candidacy.  Many “Trump Republicans” would actually prefer “Trumpism” — that is, an antidemocratic authoritarianism with election denial, voter suppression, partisan interference in the voting process, and a scorched-earth partisan political process — but without Trump.  

Even Fox commentator Laura Ingraham has opined, “maybe it's time to turn the page if we can get someone who has all Trump's policies, who's not Trump."

The problem, however, is that Trump owns the Republican Party.  Any attempt to keep him from the nomination will shatter the party.

The Caveat

There is a risk in predicting that Trump cannot win another term as president.  These are unique political times.  The United States is bitterly divided.  We have never before had a political party dedicated to anti-democratic principles.  Anything can happen in two years!!  One of the great uncertainties at this point is the degree to which the Supreme Court will allow the states to manipulate the presidential election in 2024.  If the Court were to vindicate the fringe “independent state legislature theory” (which they will be considering this fall), all bets would be off.

Certainly, the Republican Party should not be underestimated.  One sign of their political power: even after four years of the Trump administration, Republicans held onto all of the statehouses up for re-election in 2020.  They now have a 20-18 statehouse advantage over the Democrats, which is leading to extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression, and even partisan control of the voting process.  Remember, the Supreme Court has ruled that political (as opposed to racial) gerrymandering is constitutional.  

Nevertheless, I don't believe the Republican Party can survive Trump.

Losing the Moderates

Under ordinary circumstances, this should be a banner year for Republicans.  Historically, in off-cycle elections, the party in power loses seats in congressional elections.  This year would seem to be even better: President Joe Biden is not popular, inflation is not yet in control, and Americans do not feel confident about their futures.   The conventional wisdom that the Republican Party would take control of the House of Representatives and even retake control of the Senate in November, however, is in doubt.  Certainly, some of this is because the Supreme Court Dobbs decision revoking Roe v Wade is energizing Democrats much more than initially predicted.  But many of the Republican troubles can be laid directly at Trump’s door.

• Almost daily revelations that Trump not only improperly kept top-secret documents at Mar-a-Lago but also lied to the FBI about it and may have obstructed justice are having an impact.  The initial knee-jerk Republican attack on the FBI has subsided and some Republican leaders have gone silent, holding their fire.  
• The consequences of the House Jan 6 Commission hearings and the ongoing Republican defense of the Insurrectionists is affecting public opinion.
• Trump is still committed to the “Big Lie” of 2020 election fraud.  While two-thirds of Republicans still believe Biden is not the legitimate president, small but increasing numbers of them are ready to move on and getting impatient with Trump's unhinged responses, such as his “remedy” to the “revelation” that the FBI had warned Facebook about Russian disinformation regarding the Hunter Biden laptop prior to the 2020 election.  Just two weeks ago, Trump posted on his Truth Social account,

REMEDY: Declare the rightful winner or, and this would be the minimal solution, declare the 2020 Election irreparably compromised and have a new Election, immediately!!

There is of course no constitutional way to have a new election immediately.  Does The former president really not know that?

• His recent statement that he would issue full pardons and formal government apologies to the Insurrectionists has reminded voters of his ongoing support for political violence.    
• In their thrall to Trump/Trumpism, the Republicans have nominated several spectacularly ineffective Senate candidates merely because they were backed by Trump.  Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire, are doing well and likely to retain their seats.  Trumpist candidates in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even North Carolina are struggling to maintain Republican seats.  It is looking increasingly likely that the Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, even increase their majority, primarily due to backlash against Trump.
• And the Republican statehouses’ attempts to subvert the electoral process — primarily in response to the “Big Lie” — seems also to be having a negative electoral impact on moderates.

As Megan McArdle writes:

Trump is already turning GOP membership into a single-issue referendum on Trump: How far will you go to defend his erratic, self-centered and pointlessly belligerent behavior? How slavishly will you proclaim the lie that Trump actually won the 2020 election? This litmus test has alienated a lot of moderate voters.

A Minority Party

The Republican Party is already a minority party.  It has not won a popular presidential election since 2004, when the incumbent George W Bush was reelected.  Even in the current 50-50 Senate, Republicans represent less than 44% of the American population and have not represented a majority of the country’s population since 1996 (despite controlling the Senate for eight of the thirteen legislative sessions since then).  

Reconciling the Irreconcilable

At this point, there are three factions among Republican Party officials. 

• A small group, personified by Liz Cheney, is still publicly committed to democracy.  (Cheney has said she will run in the Republican primary for the single purpose of keeping Trump out of office.)  
• The dominant faction is publicly committed to Trump and his anti-democratic authoritarianism.  
• Large numbers of Republican officials, who will not identify themselves publicly, are still committed to the extremism of the Republican Party yet recognize that the party cannot survive with Trump as its head.  

The Republicans’ existential dilemma is that any attempt to get rid of Trump will force the betrayed MAGA base of voters out, shattering the party irretrievably.

So here are my predictions:

1. The coming mid-terms will find the Democrats increasing their majority in the Senate.
   
2. In the still unlikely event that Democrats maintain control of the House, American democracy will have a reprieve, two years of united government that will pass legislation restricting states from undoing democracy and limiting the impact of the reactionary Supreme Court.  If, as is more likely, the Republicans obtain control of the House, it will be a painful two years for American government.  The Republicans will continue to undermine democracy, subverting election integrity, restricting the vote, encouraging white supremacy, tolerating violence at its edges, and encouraging increasingly partisan division.
3. Trump will get the Republican presidential nomination and lead the party to broad defeat in the 2024 election.  

The shattering of the Republican party will be an event unique in American political history.